Monday, February 1, 2016

Republican Party is in Jeopardy

With the Iowa caucuses around the corner, the Republican Party is in jeopardy. This is apparent by the fact that businessman Donald Trump is leading the final pre-caucus poll in Iowa, closely followed by Senator Ted Cruz. While polls can always turn out to be wrong, they are a good indication as to what the trend is. As it stands, the Republican Party is doomed at the 2016 US Presidential Election.

Donald Trump’s entry to the race sent shockwaves through the Republican Party ranks. While some considered him a joke, others could have realized the threat he could pose for the party’s prospects from the outset. His uncharacteristic onslaught sent several prospective Presidential candidates off the race.

Trump stands with a good chance of capturing the nomination of the Republican Party. If it happens, the party will lose its chance of winning the Presidency. Trump may have won over some hardcore conservatives through his controversial remarks. However, at the same time, he has lost many others. The Republican Party, under a Trump candidacy, will find it hard to win over the moderates and neutrals.

Ted Cruz is no better in attracting broad range of support. He is a conservative and is more famous for his staunch opposition to Obamacare. He has the backing of certain groups among the US electorate and may well upset Trump by winning at the Republican caucuses in Iowa. However, Cruz will also find it difficult to attract a broad base of support among non-Republicans.

Meanwhile, Senator Marco Rubio is trailing at a distant, but not too distant, third. He has played a relatively low-key game until now. He is buying for time and perhaps hoping that perhaps sense prevails and the party dumps Trump and perhaps even Cruz. With the other candidates increasingly finding it hard to fight on, Rubio is perhaps the only hope the Republican Party could have.

Donald Trump or Ted Cruz could hope to win the 2016 Presidential Election only if the Democratic Party chooses Bernie Sanders as its candidate. Despite the increasingly successful campaign, Sanders will find it hard to win the endorsement of the party and the country as a whole. Furthermore, business interests will never tolerate the possibility of a Sanders Presidency. Therefore, Sanders will find it almost impossible to win the democratic candidacy. Even in the unlikely event of him being selected as the democratic candidate, he will have a hard time in defeating a Republican contestant thereafter.

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