Narendra Modi’s election as the Indian Prime Minister has
added a new element to the Indian political arena. Modi, a Hindu nationalist,
is a hard bargainer than earlier Prime Ministers. He has the added advantage of
a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha. Therefore, he has the ability to adapt
a internal and external policy of his liking for the next five years.
In the Lok Sabha (LS), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alone
controls 283 seats and with its allies has the control of 336 seats. Meanwhile,
Jayalalithaa Jayaram’s All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) party
won 37 out of the 39 LS seats within Tamil Nadu. This near clean sweep by
AIADMK in Tamil Nadu has led some analysts into believing that Jayalalithaa
would still have a say in India’s Sri Lanka policies.
This argument is based on the experience of Rajiv Gandhi’s
government in 1984-89. Despite controlling 414 seats in the LS, the Sri Lanka
policy of this government was heavily influenced by the then Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MG Ramachandran (MGR).
However,
the political equation is totally different today. Narendra Modi is no Rajiv
Gandhi and Jayalalithaa is no MGR. Furthermore, there is no Liberation Tigers
of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) to deal with.
In
the 1980s, MGR had developed a working rapport with the LTTE leadership
including its leader, Velupillay Prabhakaran. Therefore, MGR had considerable
leverage over the LTTE militants, irrespective of who controlled the LS in New
Delhi. Also, MGR was a seasoned politician while Rajiv Gandhi was a comparative
novice in politics.
During
the decade long premiership of Dr. Manmohan Singh, especially during his second
term, Jayalalithaa and Tamil Nadu politicians influenced India’s Sri Lanka
politics. The Congress Party did not have a comfortable majority in the LS and
had to bow down to the pressures of Tamil Nadu politicians. The central
government was susceptible to Jayalalithaa so much that she actually developed
a overestimation of her prowess and was said to be even contemplating on
reaching even a higher office through the so called ‘Third Front.’ However, the
Indian government lost its credibility by repeatedly bowing down to the Tamil
Nadu politics. The government’s weakness was exploited by Modi in the election
campaign.
Speaking
to this author in October 2013, Prof Madhav Das Nalapat of Manipal University,
India, stated that, “We should have
an India centered policy towards Sri Lanka, not a Tamil Nadu centered policy.
Whenever we had an India centered policy it is a good policy and when you have
a Tamil Nadu centered policy it is a bad policy.” This is precisely the basis
of the Modi camp as well. Narendra Modi is not a politician who is bound to be
influenced regional politicians. He is much more experienced and much more
rigid as a leader.
This is precisely the reason for Narendra Modi’s invitation to the South
Asian Association of Regional Corporation (SAARC) leaders to participate in his
inauguration as Prime Minister. Despite the displeasure of the Tamil Nadu
politicians including Jayalalithaa, Modi stood by his decision. What has to be
understood is, Modi would not have extended this invitation if he was not ready
to face the Tamil Nadu displeasure. Once he had taken the decision, it was
final.
Dr. Manmohan Singh’s weakness in decision making was seen in the last years
of his administration. He was silent on whether he was attending the
Commonwealth Heads of State Meeting in Colombo, finally bowing to Tamil Nadu
leadership. He was unsure as to what his government would do in United Nations
Human Rights Council resolution on Sri Lanka this year, finally choosing to
abstain. No wonder Jayalalithaa thought high of her power to influence New
Delhi. But she is making a grave mistake of political immaturity if she thinks
that she can do the same with Modi.
This is not to say that Modi’s foreign policy will be advantageous to Sri
Lanka. Modi has the interest of India in his mind first and foremost. Therefore
the interests of the two countries are bound to clash at some point. It will be
advantageous for both countries to manage the questions that may arise due to
the differences of interests. One advantage that both India and Sri Lanka will
have is that Modi would not bow to undue pressure from Tamil Nadu. This may
help the two countries to come to a reasonable agreement on the possible
questions of interest.
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