Ted Cruz to gain through New Hampshire Debate on February 6

Marco Rubio was always going to be the target of the establishment candidates at the New Hampshire Republican Debate on February 6. Chris Christie, as expected, launched a severe onslaught which rattled Rubio, shaking him up seriously for the first time since the Republican race for Presidency began. While these establishment candidates battle it out, Texas Senator Ted Cruz would be sitting back and enjoying.

Billionaire Donald Trump and Senator Ted Cruz are the two leading anti-establishment candidates of the Republican Party during the primaries while Rubio, Jeb Bush, Christie and John Kasich are the establishment candidates. Following the performance in Iowa, Rubio jumped up as the hot favorite of the establishment. This alarmed the other establishment candidates, who decided to hit out against the youthful Florida Senator. The intentions of Chris Christie were well known as he had called Rubio the “boy in the bubble” merely days before.

According to a CNN/WMUR Poll released on Friday, Donald Trump was still well ahead of the Republican pack with 29 percent support in New Hampshire. The biggest change following the Iowa caucus was the increasing support for Marco Rubio in particular and for the GOP establishment candidates in general. Cruz jumped from an 11 percent support prior to Iowa to 18 percent. Thereby, he went clear of Ted Cruz, who remained on 13 percent. Meanwhile, other establishment candidates such as John Kasich and Jeb Bush narrowed the gap with Cruz.

This development encouraged the establishment candidates who now aim to attract some Rubio supporters towards them. For Kasich, Bush and especially Christie, New Hampshire could be the last battle ground, and they are fully aware of it. While Kasich adopted a different tactic, Christie and Bush were out there to grab Rubio from the neck.

Rubio’s less convincing performance at the debate may cost him a few points in popularity. If so, it will be the establishment candidates who will be vying to pick up the small bits and pieces. One should remember that these pieces will be picked up by several candidates. While this can take them a few inches forward, it would not take them to somewhere secure enough.

Meanwhile, if Cruz is fortunate enough, the establishment candidates could eat into Rubio’s popularity so that he could assert himself in the second place during the primary. Therefore, if there is anyone with a chance of picking up something from the debate on Saturday, it will be Cruz.

Jeb Bush’s Last Stand

February 9 will be a vital day for Jeb Bush. On that day, when the New Hampshire primary is held, he will have to show the GOP establishment that his cause is not dead. The surprisingly strong performance by Marco Rubio has propelled him to the position of one of the leading contender for Republican nomination. A strong performance in New Hampshire will surely do him good. However, he could afford to drop a few points behind. Jeb Bush cannot.

Jeb Bush (Pic by Gage Skidmore)

Despite strong showing by Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush still has a national-wide network which he could utilize to rival any candidate from the Republican Party in the long run. Therefore, unlike the other contenders like Governor Christie and Governor Kasich, Jeb Bush can go the long distance, and could return to the position of being the favorite of the establishment.

To do so, he has to deliver at New Hampshire.

Marco Rubio has already received the endorsement of South Carolina Senator Tim Scott. This is a key victory for Rubio, given that Jeb Bush was actively seeking Scott’s endorsement. Scott’s backing has given the impression that Rubio would do well in South Carolina, one of the early-primary states. Therefore, Bush has to do well in New Hampshire to make the establishment think again.

However, Bush is finding it hard to create enthusiasm, especially in a contest which had seen ugly accusations and fiery speeches flying around. In the initial stages of the contest, as one of the serious contenders for nomination, Bush was the target of some of the most vitriolic attacks from Donald Trump. It has not gone well for Bush since then.

It is not getting any better for Bush in New Hampshire. While polls can be deceptive to a certain degree, they show that Trump is leading in New Hampshire while Bush is lingering at around 10 percent. His predicament was best seen recently, when he had to ask a crowd to “please clap”.

It is likely that Bush’s campaign will falter after February 9.

Marco Rubio, Real Winner of Iowa Republican Caucus

Marco Rubio has delivered the message. Or, more precisely, the Republican caucuses have given a message to the party establishment. The polls had indicated a close race between billionaire businessman Donald Trump and Senator Ted Cruz, with the former edging past the latter. Senator Marco Rubio was a distant third according to the same polls. However, the Republicans in Iowa chose Cruz over Trump, and gave a surprising endorsement for Rubio as well.

Rubio in 2012 (Pic: Gage Skidmore)

Rubio is currently the favorite of the party establishment, given the lackluster performance by other establishment favorites. The party cannot expect to win the Presidential Election with a divisive candidate such as Trump or Cruz. Therefore, it needs to elect a more moderate candidate such as Rubio.

Marco Rubio has several advantages. He can appeal to the younger generation and the Hispanic Americans, two key groups which overwhelmingly voted for Barack Obama in 2008 as well as 2012. He can expect the reach of the voter base to the groups which did not support the party in the last two elections.

The fact that he was also trailing in the polls in Iowa may have created some fears among the Republican establishment. Apparently, it did the same in Iowa as he was selected as the best suitable candidate by over 20 percent of the participants of the Republican caucuses. He was dangerously close to pushing Trump to a unceremonious third place.

Rubio still has challenges. Jeb Bush, also from Florida, has vowed to keep on fighting. Bush expects Rubio to lack the experience to challenge him in the long run. However, Rubio has the charisma and perhaps the strategy, to defeat other establishment candidates.

One way Trump and Cruz can deflect the challenger from Florida is to start hitting out at him openly. Rubio has played a strategic campaign which was relatively low key and risk free. It has now paid dividends. However, it will be interesting to observe how the youthful junior Senator from Florida will face up to the challenges from anti-establishment and establishment candidates.

Republican Party is in Jeopardy

With the Iowa caucuses around the corner, the Republican Party is in jeopardy. This is apparent by the fact that businessman Donald Trump is leading the final pre-caucus poll in Iowa, closely followed by Senator Ted Cruz. While polls can always turn out to be wrong, they are a good indication as to what the trend is. As it stands, the Republican Party is doomed at the 2016 US Presidential Election.

Donald Trump’s entry to the race sent shockwaves through the Republican Party ranks. While some considered him a joke, others could have realized the threat he could pose for the party’s prospects from the outset. His uncharacteristic onslaught sent several prospective Presidential candidates off the race.

Trump stands with a good chance of capturing the nomination of the Republican Party. If it happens, the party will lose its chance of winning the Presidency. Trump may have won over some hardcore conservatives through his controversial remarks. However, at the same time, he has lost many others. The Republican Party, under a Trump candidacy, will find it hard to win over the moderates and neutrals.

Ted Cruz is no better in attracting broad range of support. He is a conservative and is more famous for his staunch opposition to Obamacare. He has the backing of certain groups among the US electorate and may well upset Trump by winning at the Republican caucuses in Iowa. However, Cruz will also find it difficult to attract a broad base of support among non-Republicans.

Meanwhile, Senator Marco Rubio is trailing at a distant, but not too distant, third. He has played a relatively low-key game until now. He is buying for time and perhaps hoping that perhaps sense prevails and the party dumps Trump and perhaps even Cruz. With the other candidates increasingly finding it hard to fight on, Rubio is perhaps the only hope the Republican Party could have.

Donald Trump or Ted Cruz could hope to win the 2016 Presidential Election only if the Democratic Party chooses Bernie Sanders as its candidate. Despite the increasingly successful campaign, Sanders will find it hard to win the endorsement of the party and the country as a whole. Furthermore, business interests will never tolerate the possibility of a Sanders Presidency. Therefore, Sanders will find it almost impossible to win the democratic candidacy. Even in the unlikely event of him being selected as the democratic candidate, he will have a hard time in defeating a Republican contestant thereafter.

Importance of Iraqi Victory at Ramadi

Iraq officially declared Ramadi ‘liberated’ from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) terrorists yesterday. So, what is the importance of this development?

First and foremost, it is about phycology and morale. The Iraqi forces were utterly discredited in 2014 when the ISIS swept across large areas of Iraq including its second largest city Mosul. In May 2015, the Iraqi forces were once again humiliated by the fall of Ramadi, a city in the Sunni heartland and dangerously close to the capital of Iraq, Baghdad.

The recapture of Ramadi by the Iraqi forces was the result of a long campaign. The government forces cut off supply lines to the city, forcing most of the ISIS forces to leave. By the end, only around 400 fighters remained in the city. Nevertheless, this victory gives added confidence to the Iraqi forces in the battle against the ISIS.

Ramadi is also a city with strategic value. It occupies a highly strategic location on the Euphrates and the road west into Syria and Jordan. This has made it a hub for trade and traffic. Furthermore, it is the capital of the largest province in Iraq, Anbar. More importantly, it is a Sunni city, from where groups such as ISIS garnered significant support.

In this aspect, the liberation of Ramadi is also an indication of the changing political situation in the country. The former government of Nouri al-Maliki proved divisive and sectarian, making it easy for Sunni radical groups to attract support. The presence of Shia militant groups in Sunni areas irked the Sunnis and drew them away from the government. However, the current Iraqi government has been able to attract Sunni militant groups which helped it in the battle for Ramadi.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has vowed to defeat the ISIS in the country, following the success of the battle for Ramadi. While the final defeat of the ISIS could take years to achieve, Ramadi has given a fresh hope and an added credibility to the Iraqi forces in this long battle of attrition.

Hugo Chavez: “Por Ahora”

Venezuelans who went to sleep on February 3, 1992, woke up with the news of an extraordinary military coup on the next day. Only the conspirators knew the exact details. The government of Carlos Andres Perez knew something was up due to a ‘leak’. But that was all.

In reality, a group of military officers led by Lieutenant Colonel Hugo Chavez had organized a military takeover of the Venezuelan regime. Chavez’s hero was “the liberator” Simon Bolivar and he hoped to realize Bolivar’s dream for South America.

Hugo Chavez (Agencia Brasil)

In the very late hours of February 3, the coup was launched and soon the conspirators had control of important places in the country, except Caracas. Partly due to the leak and party due to their own shortcomings, the coup failed in the capital. Carlos Andres Perez, who had fled from the presidential palace to avoid capture, appeared on television early morning on February 4, to declare that there had been a coup but things were now under control. As far as Caracas was concerned, he was correct.

Hugo Chavez knew that the coup would fail without the capture of the capital. He decided to surrender to avoid unnecessary bloodshed. If his followers did not surrender in the peripheries, it would have resulted in a bloodbath in which many loyal followers would die for nothing. The negotiations were conducted through the mediation of General Ramon Santeliz Ruiz, a friend of Chavez. After 7 a.m. Chavez surrendered in the face of threats of aerial bombardment of his positions.

By 10 a.m. he was at the ministry of defense with Santeliz and heard that some of his followers were surrendering after hearing the news of the failure. But Jesus Hernandez Urdaneta, who was leading the rebels in Maracay, was still not willing to give up. The military was contemplating an aerial bombardment on Maracay.

It was at this juncture that Hugo Chavez suggested that he would directly talk to his men in Maracay. Yet, the telephone lines were cut. Then he suggested the radio. By an extraordinary piece of luck, the military officers suggested television. Defense minister Ochoa Antich agreed and he checked with the president. Perez wanted Chavez to be handcuffed as a prisoner and also to write down what he would tell in advance. Chavez, a shrewd politician as well as a military man, would have none of it. He did not want to appear a defeated man, although he was utterly destroyed within his mind. With no time to lose, the military men agreed to his terms.

Chavez washed his face, put on the red paratrooper beret and straightened his uniform. He will appear with dignity in front of the television cameras and therefore, in front of his nation. He walked into a room full of reporters and for the next seventy two seconds, he spoke with dignity and clarity, in real military fashion.

“First of all, I want to say good morning to all the people of Venezuela. This Bolivarian message is directed to all the courageous soldiers who are in the paratrooper regiment in Aragua and the tank regiment in Valencia. Comrades: unfortunately, for now [por ahora] the objectives we set ourselves were not achieved in the capital city. That is, those of us here in Caracas did not seize power. Where you are, you performed very well, but now is the time to reflect. New opportunities will arise and the country has to head definitely towards a better future.

So, listen to what I have to say. Listen to the Comandante Chavez, who is sending you this message. Please, reflect and put down your arms, because in truth, the objectives that we set for ourselves at a national level are not within our grasp. Comrades, listen to this message of solidarity: I am grateful for your loyalty, for your courage, for your selfless generosity. Before the country and before you, I accept responsibility for this Bolivarian military movement. Thank you very much.”

The country was stunned. Here was the leader of the coup which had surprised them, appearing live on national television and accepting responsibility for the failure of the coup. Venezuelans had never seen a politician accept responsibility for something that went wrong in their country where many things were going wrong. Then, here appears a young military officer, accepting full responsibility for a failure.

Hugo Chavez was depressed as he has had to lead a fiasco and then had to ask for others to surrender. It was then as he says that Santeliz came to him, shook his hand and said, “That was great man, what you said!” Chavez replied, “What do you mean good, if I called for surrendering?” Santeliz replied, “You said, for now.” Chavez had uttered the two defining words of the speech without realizing it. These two words “Por Ahora!” would become an important slogan of Chavez in his later campaign for presidency. In December 1998, he was swept in at the presidential polls with 56.2% of the popular vote and he was sworn in on February 2, 1999, just two days before the seventh anniversary of the coup in which he had exploded into national politics. He set out in attempting to realize his dream of a new Venezuela based on the dreams of the old hero, Simon Bolivar. The rest, as they say, is history.

Mengistu Haile Mariam: No Famine Accepted in Acceptance Speech

Mengistu Haile Mariam, the leader of the Derg (Committee) which ruled Ethiopia from 1974 to 1991, and head of state during 1977-1991, is remembered for 'red terror' and even genocide. His speech in September 1984, at the Inauguration of the Workers Party of Ethiopia (WPE) was an instance of political hypocrisy at the highest level.

The revolution of 1974 which deposed the long serving Emperor Haile Sellassie I, was the result of public dissatisfaction intensified by a famine in the 1970s. The new military regime struggled to establish itself in the initial years. Mengistu rose to the prominence after eliminating his opponents within and without the Derg.

The Derg embraced Marxism-Leninism as the guiding principle and increasing aid was received from the Soviet bloc. To transform the feudal economy, among other things, land reforms were carried out. Land distribution was quite fairly done and was generally popular. But it created small plots of land which affected the productivity.

Peasants were organized into Peasant Associations and Peasant Collectives. However, collectivization never received wide support in the country. The National Farms established also were unproductive.

The peasants' incentive to produce suffered a heavy blow due to the policies of the powerful Agricultural Marketing Corporation (AMC). This was established to feed the country's cities and towns. The AMC determined a quota for associations, collectives and national farms and bought foodstuff below market prices. To prevent smuggling, AMC built road blocks at strategic points along the roads. The peasants were unwilling to sell the full quota to the AMC at low prices.

Meanwhile, mid-year rains failed in 1983, and a famine was projected for the following year. The regime was at the time preparing for the tenth anniversary of the 1974 revolution and the establishment of a new party, the WPE. Mengistu himself may have been unaware at this stage about the projections. But, he should have been well aware of the situation by late 1983 as the Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (RRC) leaked the information to foreign press against the will of the regime. However, the regime never accepted the reality and foreign aid was not forthcoming as a result.

Rains again failed in February 1984 and June-July 1984. By that time, the famine was becoming a hard reality. The government was unwilling to divert funds from the tenth anniversary celebrations to counter the famine. More than half of the country’s population was severely affected.

Despite this, the foreign dignitaries who arrived for the celebrations in September, saw a clean city and nothing of the horror engulfing the country. In the newly built Congress Hall, the WPE was called into being and a Politburo was elected. This in turn, elected Mengistu as the General Secretary of the Party, Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces and President of the Council of ministers.

His acceptance speech lasted for five and a half hours. Mengistu spoke on the achievements and the future of the revolution. Not even once, in this long speech, did he mention the famine. Even during his speech, thousands of Ethiopians died from starvation.