Algerian Islamic Parties Hope to Ride the Waves of 'Arab Spring'.

Voters in Algeria will have 44 political parties to choose from in the legislative election of May 10, 2012 to elect 389 members of the People's National Assembly. The main contest will be between the ruling coalition and the alliance of Islamic parties. However, with so many political parties to choose from, an inconclusive result is also on the cards.

Over the past year and a half, Arab Spring has transformed the political landscapes in Arabian countries in West Asia and especially in North Africa. Boosted by the fallout of the momentous events, the once prosecuted Islamic parties have emerged triumphant across North Africa recently in the elections of Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt. They are also an important constituency in the post-Gaddafi Libya.

In this backdrop, it is understandable for the Algerian Islamic groups to hope for a change of fortunes in the upcoming elections. Over two decades ago, in 1991, the Islamic Salvation Front, an Islamic party, won almost half the votes in the first round of the legislative election. Faced with the prospect of an Islamic government, the military stepped in and took power, triggering a brutal civil war which claimed more than 100,000 lives. Twenty one years later, three Islamic parties have forged an alliance to challenge the two governing parties, National Liberation Front (FLN) and National Rally for Democracy (RND). These parties won 136 and 61 seats respectively in the last election in 2007.

The Islamic alliance will consist of Movement of Society for Peace (MSP), Islamic Renaissance Movement (also known as al-Nahda) and Movement for National Reform (also known as al-Islah). The former, which won 52 seats in 2007, is by far the largest party. Al-Nahda and Al-Islah won 5 and 3 seats respectively in the election five years ago.

Another major challenger to the governing parties will be the 'Red Lady' of Algeria, Louisa Hanoune and the Trotskyist Workers' Party (PT) led by her. A veteran revolutionary aged 58, Hanoune is popular in Algeria and came second in the largely one-sided presidential election in 2009, winning 4.22% of votes. She has once again promised to improve job opportunities, eual rights for women and eliminating Algerian Family Code, making Berber an official language and other reforms eliminating discrimination based on sex, religion, language etc. With increasing economic worries and the advances gained by the European leftists across the Mediterranean, the PT hopes to significantly improve their tally of 26 seats in 2007. With the possibility of no party or alliance gaining a simple majority, PT might find itself in a "kingmaker" position. However, it is doubtful if any other major party will want to work with it.

The main challenge for the political parties will be to instill credibility to the electoral process. In 2007, just 35% of eligible voters casted their ballots. However, with new possibilities on the cards, it is expected that more people will vote this time. The participation of new voters will not be advantageous for the governing coalition.



Image: Algeria (orthographic projection), L'Americaine, Wikimedia Commons.

Election Sunday in Europe

Its election time in Europe. Just three days after the local elections in the United Kingdom, eight elections were held in five European countries on Sunday May 6, 2012. France saw the second round of its presidential election. Greece held a legislative election just after three years after the last election. Meanwhile, Serbia held the first round of its presidential election, the parliamentary election and the local elections. Also, the province of Vojvodina in Northern Serbia held its own parliamentary election. The Northern German state of Schleswig-Holstein held its own state election on May 6 and Armenia held its general election. Capping the multitude of elections was the local elections in Italy on Monday, May 7.

The elections saw a general swing towards the left, contrary to the trend of the recent far right swing in Europe. But underneath the general successes of the left were significant gains by the far right at some instances.

The French presidential election ended with no surprise as Francois Hollande defeated the incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy, albeit with a smaller margin than expected beforehand. The far right candidate Marine Le Pen had an unprecedented success just two weeks ago in the first round and her voters may have had a direct influence on Sarkozy's percentage in the second round when they had to choose the best of two 'evils'. The Serbian general election also saw an improvement of the nationalist fortunes. Serbian Progressive Party, led by Tomislav Nikolic, a former ally of Slobodan Milosevich won 73 out of 250 seats. However, it is far shorter than the required majority and just six seats ahead of the Democratic Party of the incumbent president Boris Tadic. The presidential election will be decided in a second round between Tadic and Nikolic in two weeks. With recent gains, Nikolic will not want to be defeated a third time by Tadic. But with Tadic's party forming a new government it will be an uphill task to the nationalists.

The Greek general election has seen by far the most dramatic results. The 'coalition of austerity' of the New Democracy (ND) and Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) has suffered heavily. Although the 50 bonus seats has helped the ND to win 108 seats, it gained less than 20% of the popular vote. Meanwhile, the anti austerity party, Coalition of the Radical Left, also known as SYRIZA shocked PASOK, the leading left party by beating it to second place. With 52 seats in the 300 member legislature, it will be a key in an eventual coalition government. With the Communists winning 26 seats and the recently formed Democratic Left winning 19, the left parties except PASOK have nearly one third of the seats. However, a more alarming result is the rise of the extremist Golden Dawn party which took nearly 7% of the votes and 21 seats, becoming a force to reckon with after being in the fringe up to now.

The local elections in Italy has also seen a revival of the left parties and other Eurosceptic parties. While the left has done well in number of municipalities, the Five Stars Movement of comedian Beppe Grillo has showed record popularity among the voters. Former Prime Minister Silvio Belrusconi's party has suffered heavily, being outdone by even the Five Star Movement in some municipalities. Meanwhile, the right wing has suffered a significant setback in Schleswig-Holstein in Northern Germeny. The Christian Democratic Union of the Iron Chancellor Angela Merkel has fallen to a historic low with just over 30% of the popular vote in the state. They have a wafer thin lead over their rivals, the Social Democratic Party. Both have won 22 seats each in the 69 member Landtag. Meanwhile, the Free Democrats who are currently the allies of the CDU have fared badly. However, the Piracy Party has emerged as an important group amid debates over copyright issues over the past few months.

Outside the Eurozone, Armenia's Republican Party led by the country's president Sergzh Sargsyan has won a majority winning 69 of 131 seats. This has been a rare case of a success in an incumbent president in Europe. However, although Armenia is considered European, it is in the extreme South East of the continent and out of the Eurozone.

Rising Popularity of the European Far-Right

The first round of the recently held French presidential election has once more proven to be a reminder of the rising popularity of the far right in European politics. Marine Le Pen, who added a youthful image to her father's party, National Front (Front National) won over 6.4 million votes, nearly 18% of the total. It was far better than her father's best and shocking performance a decade ago. In 2002, the Jean-Marie Le Pen took 16.86% of the vote and came second in the first round of the election. In the second round, he took more than 5.5 million votes (17.79%). Ten years later, Ms. Le Pen may have costed Nicolas Sarkozy the victory of the first round. His attempts to attract her voters seems to have been totally unsuccessful. Although Ms. Le Pen was expected to emerge in the third place, this performance is much better than expected.

The increasing popularity of the far right has been a growing phenomena of the European politics during the past few years. The extreme manifestations of this has been the growth of various militant groups and individuals resorting to violence. Although Anders Behring Breivik, the mass murderer of Norway is an extreme case, it is by no means the only one. A further alarming fact is that although Breivik horrified many with his killings, it had not stopped the European electorates increasingly tilting to the right. The far right Progress Party suffered a setback in the local elections held in Norway just two months after the Breivik massacres. But, it seems to be an isolated setback in the European context.

Usually, the parties of the extreme right were considered taboo by other political parties and were not even asked to join in forming coalition governments. But, from the 1990s, their increasing popularity has made it hard to ignore them. The legal far right has been very strong in Austria, Italy and Norway among other countries for more than a decade. Recently, far right political parties have made significant inroads in the Netherlands, Finland and several other countries. Furthermore, it should be noted that in both Austria and Norway, the far right political parties are now getting more votes than the main traditional right wing parties.

Another important tactic used by the far right is furthering their ideas with the help of the traditional right wing. This can be effectively done at a time of a crisis such as this when Europe is in an economic recession. Furthermore, there has been an increasing level of anti immigration sentiment associated with economic woes and islamophobia after 9/11. These have been the main vehicles through which the far right has exploded to the political arena.

Good examples for this have been the Minaret ban in Switzerland and the face-veil ban in several countries. In the former, while the main parties opposed the idea, the far right propagated it. In the subsequent referendum, the Swiss electorate defied the main political parties and approved the ban. However, in the face-veil banning crisis, it was the mainstream parties which put the proposal forward. For the far right, it was an god-sent opportunity.

The recent French election saw a battle between the moderate right and the far right for the right wing votes with Ms. Le Pen accusing Sarkozy of stealing her ideas a number of times. This has ultimately cost Sarkozy. He had to tread a very dangerous path and had to appease both moderate and far right voters. Too much far right sentiment may have alienated the moderates. Ms. Le Pen was spared of Sarkozy's troubles as she would be appealing to the far right only. Her aim was to convince the moderates that the nation is at a crisis where draconian measures are required. While many would not approve of the 'draconian measure' taken by Breivik, there are enough supporters for the far right to create new political realities. Both the more moderate and the left wing politicians have something to be alarmed of at this juncture. If the economic crisis does not resolve soon, the far right is bound to make further inroads at least in some regions.

It should be remembered that the rise to power of the far right in the inter war period was associated with the economic depression of 1929. without it, Hitler would not have come to power. Also, it should be remembered that Nazis of Germany and some other groups had an anti-Jewish platform then. Today, the far right has a more broader 'anti-immigration' platform. Furthermore, the far right parties came to power with the assistance of the moderate right wing in the 1920s and 1930s. The moderate right of today should be very careful not to make the same mistake.



Image: Marie-Lan Nguyen, "Marine Le Pen at the 1st of May National Front's rally in honour of Joan of Arc, Paris.", From Wikimedia Commons.

Mitt Romney: The Best the Republicans can Have

A Republican, specially a moderate, might recall the saying "all's well that ends well" seeing Mitt Romney march forward in the primary contest. His victories in all of the five contests on the "mini-Super Tuesday" of April 24, 2012, has effectively ended Newt Gingrich's dreams of sneaking past the former Massachusetts governor. Admittedly, the contests were all in the North where Gingrich has done poorly. But that is just the point. Gingrich is unable to pose a credible challenge to Romney anywhere outside deep South, even with Rick Santorum out of the race. Santorum, who may have had better prospects of challenging Romney pulled out of the race a week after the last primaries, where he was defeated by Mitt Romney. Santorum may have also feared a 'home defeat' at Pennsylvania on April 24.

Throughout the campaign, Romney waged a 'War of Attrition'. With an early lead he could afford to go at ease in some unfavorable states and pay more attention to the others. With a staggering financial base, he could outspend all his challengers in the states at which he decided to give a fight. He could also wage a longer campaign if necessary, a luxury not enjoyed by all his challengers. It is true that Romney fared badly in the conservative heartland. But, it is also true to say that his challengers have failed to defeat him in the more moderate turf.

Romney was helped by Gingrich to defeat Santorum in some close contests by diverting some votes from the conservative Pennsylvanian. After Santorum pulled out of the race, one may wonder if the other contender, Ron Paul, may have a detrimental effect on Romney's campaign. Hardly so. The fact that 'the permanent underdog' Ron Paul is doing better than Gingrich in some states even after Santorum's exit speaks volumes of Gingrich's inability of defeating Barack Obama if he was to become the eventual Republican candidate. Gingrich may have hoped to garner the support of delegates won by Santorum in the Republican Party convention and defeat Romney there. But with such poor performances, he doesn't have a realistic chance of doing so.

Therefore, partly due to the timely assistance of Gingrich and Ron Paul, Mitt Romney is in a position to begin the campaign against his next opponent, Barack Obama. For the Republicans, moderate or conservative, he is the best candidate to have. Being a Mormon, Romney may appear a non-believer to evangelical conservatives. But, to them Obama is even a worse 'non-believer'. A conservative will find it difficult to divert Obama's votes towards the Republican camp. Romney, with his business background, may hope to do so. Therefore, he is more likely to challenge Obama in the swing states and even in supposedly Democratic states.

How the Young Jean-Paul Sartre Ousted a Principal with the Assistance of Charles Lindberg

In 1924, the 19 year old Jean-Paul Sartre came seventh in an entrance exam to École Normale Supérieure (ENS) of Paris. Along with him entered his best friend Paul Nizan. "Many can say, as I do, that they have had four years of happiness" Sartre later said of his life at ENS. Actually, he was there for five years, leaving in summer 1929. Sartre benefited from the company of young and bright students in ENS and its library. He read extensively borrowing hundreds of book from the it.

If there was a reason for discontent at ENS to Sartre and his friends, it was their principal. Gustave Lanson was an eminent literary historian. When he took up the post in 1919 he was already 62 years of age. Nizan looked down on him as a 'little old man, patriotic, hypocritical and powerful, with a respect for soldiers.' For Sartre and his friends, neither eminence nor power mattered. They continuously subjected the principal to satirical attacks. Sartre impersonated him in a play (A l'ombre de vieilles billes en fleur) they acted at the annual revue of March 1925. Reporting the event, L'Oeuvre stated: "The student Sartre sustained the role of M. Lanson brilliantly."

Image: Gustave Lanson, from Wikimedia Commons

Two years and two months later, Charles Lindbergh, an American pilot three years Sartre's senior, emerged from obscurity flying a single seat, single engine plane, Spirit of St. Louis across the Atlantic on May 20-21, 1927. This was followed by many accolades and awards bestowed upon him. One award made him an 'honorary pupil of École Normale Supérieure.' However, this was just a part of a huge practical joke perpetrated by Sartre, Nizan and three other students, which eventually ended the long lasting duel between Lanson and Sartre, giving the youngster an unexpected victory.

After the solo flight of Lindbergh, the five students telephoned the evening papers, informing them of 'a unanimous decision by the disciplinary council of ENS to make Lindbergh an honorary pupil.' The papers carried the story. Furthermore, Le Petit Parisien announced on May 25 that Lindbergh will be at the ENS that morning at 9.30. At the appointed hour, a crowd of about 500 had gathered to greet the great man, who arrived in a taxi. This phony 'great man' was a student who had a slight resemblance to Lindbergh. He was greeted with an ovation by the crowd which had gathered and as he was carried on the shoulders of his fellows the crowd followed and an old man even kissed his hands.

Reporting of the successful act, the newspapers referred scathingly to Gustave Lanson. Greatly upset, he resigned. This was an unusual instance at which the students defeated the establishment by their practical jokes.

References

Ronald Hayman, Writing Against: A Biography of Sartre, Weidenfeld and Nicolson, London (1986)

Bhoja Air Flight B-4 213 Crash near Islamabad

Bhoja Air Flight B-4 213, took off from the Jinnah International Airport in Karachi on its flight to the Benazir Bhutto International Airport at Islamabad. It was destined to be the last flight for the Boeing 737, carrying 121 passengers and six crew. It crashed in bad weather close to Hussein Abad village near the Pakistani capital Islamabad, last night (April 20, 2012). No survivors were found among the wreckage of the Boeing 737. Police officer Fazle Akbar told AFP that "There is no chance of any survivors. It will be only a miracle. The plane is totally destroyed."

Bhoja Air Flight B-4 213, was due to land at Islamabad at 6.50 p.m. local time. However, contact with Islamabad control tower was lost 10 minutes before and soon the plane had crashed. The website of Pakistan's Dawn newspaper reported that parts of Islamabad was being lashed with violent rains and windstorm. It has been suggested that lightning may have caused a fire and subsequent crash of the plane. As the black box of the plane has been found, further details are bound to be revealed in due course.

It has been just six weeks after Bhoja Air had resumed its flights after being grounded by lack of funds in 2000. With a fleet of five Boeing 737s, they had planned to start several domestic flight routes connecting Karachi with Islamabad, Multan and Lahore. In Pakistan, travel is much efficient by air and accidents are relatively rare. The worst accident in Pakistani air transport history inside Pakistan was in 2010 also at Islamabad when an Airbus 321 operated by a private airline Airblue carrying 152 people crashed when coming to land. Coincidentally, it was also coming from Karachi.



References

Khurram Shahzad, "No Hope of Survivors in Pakistan Plane Crash: Police", AFP, April 20, 2012.

"Scores Killed in Pakistan Plane Crash", Al Jazeera, April 20, 2012.

"Plane Crash near Islamabad Kills 127", Dawn.com, April 20, 2012.

Bhoja Air Website, B4-213 KHI-ISB 20-04-2012 List of Passengers.

North Korean 'Rocket Madness'

North Korea's launching of Unha-3 rocket carrying the satellite Kwangmyongsong-3 was unsuccessful as the rocket exploded in less than 100 seconds. Therefore, Japan and South Korea were denied the 'pleasure' of shooting it down. North Korea decided to carry out the launch despite the protests of the West, South Korea and Japan. The North Koreans declared that Kwangmyongsong-3 was a weather satellite but the West countered stating that the launch was a cover-up for an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile test.

The North Koreans had planned to launch the satellite between April 12-16, 2012, to commemorate their founder Kim Il-sung's birth centenary. Born on April 15, 1912, Kim Il-sung was a anti-Japanese guerrilla leader during the 1930s. Later he became the leader of the Soviet zone of Korea after the end of the Second World War in 1945. He was the leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) from its founding in 1948 until his death in 1994. He was succeeded by his son, Kim Jong-il. When he died in December 2011, he was in turn succeeded by his son Kim Jong-un.

Being an inherently secretive regime, the DPRK has disclosed little details of the private lives of its leaders. The young Kim Jong-un is supposed to be 28 years old and therefore is the youngest head of state serving today. He is ruling over a country of 25 million people, 1.1 million of them, or above 4%, being soldiers. This makes the Korean People's Army the 4th largest army in the world. However, the country is impoverished and starving.

Given this, it is in a way a puzzle as to why the regime continues to pursue increasing militarization with the nuclear program and the rocket program being inherent parts of it. They hardly pay attention to alleviate poverty and the food crisis. Kim Jong-un seems to follow the same line despite some early signs to the contrary.

Usually, North Korea does not own up when they make a mistake. However, they promptly did so when the Unha-3 rocket exploded. Furthermore, Kim Jong-un surprised many when he gave a public speech on April 15, at a military parade to commemorate his grandfather's birth anniversary. However, he payed tribute to his grandfather and father and also to the army. In short, he implied that no fundamental change in the day to day activities of the DPRK leadership should be expected in for the time being.

The main reason for the reluctance towards reforms seems to be the fear that once reforms are initiated, it will go out of the control of the leadership. It will invariably bring the doom of the regime. Unlike China which instituted economic reform while keeping the political control firmly under the Communist Party, the North Koreans face a different threat. They have a traditional rival in the form of South Korea. Any liberalization may end up with the people opting for a better life. What happened to East Germany might be deterring the North Koreans. Therefore, attempts at reform have always been lukewarm and hence destined to fail.

North Korea does need aid. But any aid is bound to come from the West with strings attached. The West would want them to open up. In the long run it will undermine the regime. But what if the DPRK also had a bargain to offer, such as abandoning the nuclear program or the rocket program? Then the West would have less leverage. This has happened earlier, and may happen in the future. The Korean issue is far from over.


Image: North Korean Unha-3 Rocket at Launch Pad, Voice of America, from Wikimedia Commons.


References

Paul Koring, "Failed Rocket Provides Pyongyang's Moment of Truth", The Globe and Mail (Canada), April 13, 2012.

Damian Grammaticas, "Kim Joun-un's First Public Speech" BBC, April 16, 2012.

"Kim Jong-un Speeks at Military Parade", Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), April 15, 2012.